[This was started back in June, but now that it's August 2010... the thought is partially incomplete, but since I've lost the mojo that conceived the initial inspiration, I'll refrain from adding too much to what's below... for now... jle/8-11-10]
I'm not a (trained) futurist, analyst, or market guru, but with some of the things I read earlier this week [on Espn.com, but I can't find the article now, a couple of days later, so you'll have to take my word for some of the references] about concerns over the future of the NBA (apparently, as a league they have had a year in the red), I have a couple of theories.
The article mentioned the idea of being more accepting of personality quirkyness [their example was Sir Charles, since he's still getting endorsement deals over a decade after retirement]. There's a kernel of validity there. The article also referenced the Free Agency issue, and how the "power balance" (for market share) could shift. I'm putting these two items together since I think they are different angles of the same picture: there are very few marquee leadership personalities right now, and most of those that ARE active are the ones being shopped around. There's very little line-up consistency (that I can tell) - a lot of those marquee players sign short-term deals then move to another team that might give them one of two things: a better chance at a ring, or more money (especially if the team can do both).
The article also mentioned that there's concern over the championship spread (citing only about seven teams that have won titles over the last 20-ish years). A quick history lesson for those that may question that: in the 80's (I know, I'm stretching to 30 years here): Lakers & Celtics owned the decade, with the Sixers eaking out on ring for Dr. J. Transitioning into the 90's, Detroit's Bad Boys took two before the Bulls (Jordan) took over for the decade. Throw a couple of titles to Houston, then to San Antonio before and after the Admiral's retirement and we're moving into to 00's. Miami wins some, another couple for Detroit, the Lakers & Celtics return to form. Eight, by my count, but there's something that should be noticed by what I just did there.
The identities: The Lakers & Celtics are the institutions of the NBA, much like the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers of Baseball. But both teams were built around personalities and styles (in the 80's for example: Lakers were "Showtime" with Magic & Kareem, while Boston was fueled by Bird's blue-collar hustle and teamwork). Even more historically: check the Boston rafters for the number of championship banners and retired jerseys, or the number of Celtics in the Hall of Fame. A few great leaders, but a lot of great role-players - but collectively, a ruling theme of team first, ego second.
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